Meteorologist - Professor

Bath, Pa.

"N O T E" - " N O T E"

This article is used on my web site with the permission of The Morning Call Inc., Allentown, Pa.

"The Morning Call Inc., Copyright 2002" Date: Saturday, August 14, 1999 FORECASTING WEATHER IS FRUSTRATING WORK * THOSE WHO STUDY PATTERNS AND SYSTEMS MAKE PREDICTIONS FOR REST OF THIS YEAR, INTO NEXT. By JEFF GELMAN, The Morning Call Charles Giannetta hated being wrong about the weather. After all, forecasting was his job for 36 years. But the retired National Weather Service meteorologist can sympathize with his fellow weather buffs. The Old Farmer's Almanac, the Hagers-Town Almanack and the National Weather Service all failed to predict the severity of the drought that has brought the area to its knees. "It's a frustrating game," Giannetta of Bath said of weather forecasting. "You don't predict the weather, you try to outguess it." Since June, the Lehigh Valley's parched throat has been deprived of about 8 fewer inches of water than normal. Farmers' crops are literally dying at their feet. "I'm very much concerned about next year, because from here on through September and October, most of the trees produce their buds that are going to be fruit for next year, said Glenn Ellenberger, Lehigh County's retired farm agent. "With a lack of moisture and vigor in trees, I don't think we're going to have much of a (fruit or nut) crop next year." Weather forecasters say there is good news on the horizon. Thunderstorms are likely today. Sunday offers a 50 percent chance of more storms. The National Weather Service predicts above average precipitation for the next three months. Southeastern Pennsylvania has "a better chance than usual" of seeing a tropical storm in the upcoming months, said Russell Martin, National Weather Service meteorologist. One could hit the mid-Atlantic region next month, predicted Bill O'Toole, a weather forecaster for the Hagers-Town Almanack for 31 years. O'Toole said he believes the mid-Atlantic region will be soaked with enough precipitation by the end of the winter to make up for the water deficit. But Martin said unless a hurricane barrels through the Lehigh Valley, the region will need six months to a year's worth of rain to shake the drought. The rains may not start until November. September and October tend to be the year's driest months, said Fred Gadomski, a meteorologist at Pennsylvania State University. Ellenberger, Lehigh County's retired farm agent, said the skies would have to release 2.7 million gallons of rain just to cover a 100-acre farm with an inch of water. Long-range forecasts should be taken with a drop of rain, some meteorologists say. "My personal philosophy on long-range forecasts, more than two weeks in advance, is that you may have only a slightly better chance than a coin toss of hitting it," said Bill Syrett, a meteorology instructor at Penn State. But that doesn't stop forecasters from trying. The National Weather Service and the Old Farmer's 1999 Almanac said that area rainfall in July would be above normal or normal, which is 4.14 inches. The region was sprinkled with less than one-tenth of that: .33 of an inch. In fact, July was the driest month on record, said Art Kraus, a National Weather Service meteorologist. Oops. The Hagers-Town Almanack predicted June would receive an average rainfall, which for Allentown is 3.75 inches. The area received less than an inch. It's not that weather experts are delirious from the heat. "We can tell what the weather is going to be very accurately in the next five days. Trying to figure out long-term climate conditions is more difficult," said Bob Chartuk, spokesman for the National Weather Service. He said meteorologists underestimated the power of La Nina, an eastern movement of cold ocean waters that cause cold air to sweep across the United States. "We knew La Nina would affect the jet stream, but not to the extent it was affected," Chartuk said. A team of meteorologists for the Old Farmer's Almanac predicts the weather by analyzing solar cycles, ocean temperatures, upper-level wind patterns and atmospheric dust, said Managing Editor Susan Peery. They also use the Almanac's secret 208-year-old weather forecasting method. Peery said the Almanac is right 80 percent of the time. Giannetta, the retired meteorologist, said the drought could continue into next year. "My answer to that would be unlikely, but possible." But because he's retired from forecasting the weather, Giannetta joked, "I'll let you know when we get there next year."

"This Weather By Giannetta" Web Site: © 1998 - 2002 Charles A. Giannetta

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