Meteorologist - Professor

Bath, Pa.

"N O T E" - " N O T E"

This article is used on my web site with the permission of The Morning Call Inc., Allentown, Pa.

"The Morning Call Inc., Copyright 2002" DRYNESS, NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEN AS SUMMER'S CONDITIONS * WE'LL HAVE HOT, COOL, WET AND DRY DAYS IN THE `AVERAGE' SEASON THAT WILL BEGIN TODAY. by LAUREN ROTH, The Morning Call Enjoying the mild weather and sparse rain? Expect more of the same this summer, which begins at 3:49 p.m. today. It's the summer solstice, when the sun will be at its farthest point north of the equator. But even though the summer's weather is supposed to be average, it will still include both hot and cold days. "I'm used to working in the rain and heat from year to year," said Travis Fink of Heidel Hollow Farms in Slatington. "But nobody's very good at working when it's 100 degrees and humid." Rainfall forecasts for July, August and September show levels will be close to normal this year. That means that by Oct. 1, the Lehigh Valley should have had about 12 inches of rain. But even a return to normal rainfall after this spring's drought may not bring relief to some. "If we get normal precipitation, it won't necessarily end the drought," said meteorologist Bob Wanton of the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, N.J. The eastern two-thirds of Pennsylvania have been under a drought warning since early June, and a drought watch has been in place since March, when a statewide three-month drought emergency expired. "We will need above-normal rain to end the drought," Wanton said. During a drought warning, residents are asked to voluntarily reduce their water usage by 10 percent. A watch indicates a request for a 5 percent reduction. Area farmers aren't too worried just yet, said Mark Lichtenwalner of Donald Lichtenwalner Farms in Macungie."The dryness hasn't meant a lot" because grains are almost ready for harvest and rain isn't essential. Crops such as corn and soybeans were planted recently and haven't needed much water. But the young crops are beginning to need more rain for growth. "We are getting to a critical point," he said. "No one has a crystal ball, but if it stays dry there could be big problems." Humid summer weather makes for sticky and miserable days, but they are the best thing for area farmers, Wanton said. "Hot and dry weather will evaporate more moisture from vegetation, the lakes and the streams. Humidity is sticky, but good for farmers." The past months' drought also will have effects into the summer for homeowners with trees, explained Northampton County Horticultural Extension Agent Emelie Swackhamer. "Ornamental trees were hurt in last winter's drought, and it is showing this spring," she said. Lawn plants, especially new ones, should be watered year-round whenever less than an inch of rain has fallen in a week, she said.Since June 1, the Lehigh Valley area has had only 4/5 inch of rain, according to Wanton. More than 2 inches would be normal by now. May's rain was about an inch below normal, and April's was about a quarter inch short. Temperatures have gone the other way in June, hovering above the 69.4 degree June average. In contrast, April and May were cool months, ending about a half-degree under average in April and nearly a degree under in May. Forecasters predict summer temperatures will be around average. July's average temperature is about 74 degrees, August's is a bit over 72 degrees and September's average cools off to under 65 degrees. So can any of the region's weather woes be blamed on La Nina, an eastern movement of cold ocean waters from South America to Indonesia? La Nina sweeps cold air across the United States, unlike its opposite, El Nino, a movement of warm ocean waters from Indonesia to South America that warms the United States, said retired meteorologist and weather statistician Charles Giannetta of Bath. La Nina hasn't been negatively affecting our weather, Wanton said. The region has the ocean-cooling weather system to thank for three mild winters, he said. "In the mid-Atlantic we have found that we get bland weather when we are in either El Nino or La Nina. It matters more in winter; we don't get big storms. But we should be moving out of La Nina by the end of summer," Wanton said. And the summer forecast indicates a waning of La Nina's influence, which tends to cause slight temperature increases and a drop in precipitation. Last summer wasn't as calm as this year looks to be, with temperatures and rain levels all over the board. July's temperatures were normal, and August and September were warmer than average. Rainfall levels last July were low, but August's wetness made up for it, and September was slightly below average, according to measurements collected by Giannetta. But any forecast of what the summer months will be like should be taken with a grain of salt, said Giannetta, who has 35 years of experience as a meteorologist. "It's going to be hot; it's going to be cold; it's going to be rainy; it's going to be dry," he said. "In the end, it all averages out."

"This Weather By Giannetta" Web Site: © 1998 - 2002 Charles A. Giannetta

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